MOLIN ZHONG

Principal Economist

Federal Reserve Board

Division of Financial Stability

Financial and Macroeconomic Stability Studies

My CV (last updated August 2025)

My Site at the Federal Reserve Board

The views expressed on this website are my own and should not be interpreted as reflecting the views of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System or of any other person associated with the Federal Reserve System.

WORKING PAPERS

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MACROECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL RISKS: A TALE OF MEAN AND VOLATILITY

Download This Paper (APRIL 2023)

with Dario Caldara (FRB) and Chiara Scotti (Banca D'Italia)

RISK IN A DATA-RICH MODEL

Download This Paper (SEPTEMBER 2024)

with Dario Caldara (FRB) and Haroon Mumtaz (QMUL)

A NONLINEAR DYNAMIC FACTOR MODEL FOR FINANCIAL AND MACROECONOMIC DATA

Download This Paper (JUNE 2024)

with Pablo Guerrón-Quintana (BC) and Alexey Khazanov (Hebrew Univ Jerusalem)

PUBLICATIONS

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MACROECONOMIC FORECASTING IN TIMES OF CRISES

Download This Paper (APRIL/MAY 2023)

Journal of Applied Econometrics

with Pablo Guerrón-Quintana (BC)

Coverage: No Hesitations blog

UNDERSTANDING BANK AND NONBANK CREDIT CYCLES: A STRUCTURAL EXPLORATION

Download This Paper (FEBRUARY 2023)

Journal of Money, Credit and Banking

with Bora Durdu (FRB)

LIKELIHOOD EVALUATION OF MODELS WITH OCCASIONALLY BINDING CONSTRAINTS

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Journal of Applied Econometrics, Vol 34, Issue 7, Nov/Dec 2019

with Pablo Cuba-Borda (FRB), Luca Guerrieri (FRB), Matteo Iacoviello (FRB)

A NEW APPROACH TO IDENTIFYING THE REAL EFFECTS OF UNCERTAINTY SHOCKS

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Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, Vol 38, Issue 2, 2020

with Minchul Shin (FRB Philadelphia)

MEASURING INTERNATIONAL UNCERTAINTY: THE CASE OF KOREA

Download This Paper, Appendix, Korean uncertainty index 1991M10-2016M5

Economics Letters, Vol 162, 2018

with Minchul Shin (FRB Philadelphia), Boyuan Zhang (Amazon), and Dong Jin Lee (Bank of Korea)

DOES REALIZED VOLATILITY HELP BOND YIELD DENSITY PREDICTION?

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International Journal of Forecasting, Vol 33, Issue 2, April - June 2017

with Minchul Shin (FRB Philadelphia)

POLICY PAPERS

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ACCOUNTING FOR UNCERTAINTY AND RISKS IN MONETARY POLICY

Download This Paper (AUGUST 2025)

with Michael Bauer (FRB San Francisco), Travis Berge (FRB), Giuseppi Fiori (FRB), Francesca Loria (FRB)

The analysis in this paper was presented to the Federal Open Market Committee as background for its discussion of the Federal Reserve’s 2025 review of its monetary policy strategy, tools, and communications.

CONTACT

Division of Financial Stability, Federal Reserve Board
20th St. and Constitution Ave NW, Washington, DC 20551, USA

molin.zhong@frb.gov

Phone: (202) 973-6126

Fax: (202) 263-4852

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